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Abstract:
The current study discusses the implications of globalization for education in Pakistan. Time series data from 1980 to 2019 has been used. KOF Index of globalization has been used as a composite measure of globalization. This index is based on three aspects of globalization: economic, social, and political. For education, the study employed the annual data for the adult literacy rate. Other supporting variables are government expenditures, private consumption, and urban population. The long-run and short-run relationships have been determined by using Johansen Co-integration and VECM, respectively. The empirical results unequivocally show the existence of co-integration, which confirms the presence of a long-run relationship in the model. The negative and significant value of the ECT (-1) term further defends the existence of the long-run relationship. The study suggests that government should take measures to maximize the fruits of globalization
Key Words:
Globalization, Education, Government Expenditures, Time Series, Co-integration
Introduction
For the last two decades, economists and other researchers associated with different academia have been considering globalization for research purposes. The major portion of the discussion is to find its pros and cons (Razaq, 2011). It is a multifaceted term that is broadly categorized into three different categories: economic, social, and political globalization. Broadly, globalization is described as a course of speedy economic integration among different countries, which are motivated by trade liberalization, investment, technological change, and capital flows (Torres, 2001).
The effects of globalization can be seen in all walks of life. It has probably left nothing untouched. Based on extensive work on globalization, it may be regarded as a mixed blessing as globalization is showing both positive and negative impacts around the globe. However, all theorists are unanimous that globalization has had behemoth impacts on societies in all fields of life. Even a bird's eye view of the literature on globalization demonstrates that globalization has turned the green plant into a small village, a global village (Al’Abri, 2011). Among others, the impact of globalization on education is extraordinary, especially in transitional economies like Pakistan (Naz, 2016). Besides, globalization in its different forms has significant impacts on education around the globe. The desire to amend the educational systems is felt by all the nation-states in reaction to changing trends worldwide and in response to new modernized ideas (Vulliamy (2010).
The philosophies of globalization, education, and the public sector are strongly interlinked. Globalization has almost revolutionized every segment of the public sector. It has forced the governments to re-evaluate them politically, economically, socially, and culturally. It seems like a transformation at the national level is occurring around the globe. However, the process of globalization is required to be carefully tackled so that its impacts on nations may not be misunderstood (Waks, 2006). As Einstein once said, the atomic bomb would entirely change the world. In today's world, the same narrative can be set about globalization. It has been imparting its considerable impacts on the economy, culture, and politics of developed as well as underdeveloped nations. This means that physical borders are no more insuperable hurdles to any kind of links and integration among nations (Abdelhadi et al., 2015).
In recent years, the linkages between globalization and education have been tried to dig out how education has been and is being affected by globalization. Marginson (1999) describes that education “has become a prime medium of globalization and an incubator of its agents.” In addition, Cudmore (2005) unequivocally states that globalization has brought overwhelming changes in the national education systems as most of the changes in the education sector around the globe may be credited to the effects of globalization. In the same way, Ciroma et al. (2014) propose that there is no education system worldwide that is still surviving without affecting by the wave of globalization.
Apart from the above, the process of globalization affects the policymaking in the education sector. Conventionally, policies on different issues, including education, are made inside of a country by the people at the helm of affairs. However, in the last two decades, it has been observed that globalization has been influencing and has been challenging nationally bounded educational policy (Rizvi & Lingard, 2010). Traditionally, each nation developed its educational policy accommodating its needs and preferences for the future. But under the term 'globalized education', the generalized outcomes like creating the ability to work with heterogeneous cultures and nationalists, developing the skills to survive in a multi-cultural environment, and encouraging individuals to analyze the global economic challenges (Naz, 2016). Considering the compound effects of globalization, the prime focus of this study is to evaluate the impact of globalization on education in Pakistan. The rest of the study is organized as follows: The second section of this study belongs to a review of the literature. In the third section, there is a discussion on the theoretical background, econometric methodology, and discussion of results. Section four draws conclusions and policy implications for the current study.
Literature Review
Rikowski (2002) theoretically examined not only the nature of globalization but also scrutinized its impacts on education. The study found that it is capital globalization that is the most important indicator among all other facets of globalization. The study proposed that in the disguise of globalization, the agenda of WTO of promoting free trade around the globe is being fulfilled. Further, globalization has created room for privatization in the education sector. The private sector has been promoting unprecedented standards of education for the sake of profit. The study suggested that the government through public institutions must bridge the gap in the education sector while monitoring the private sector at the same time.
Brown (2003) suggested that globalization and education are linked with the imperfect market situation; monopoly. Certain groups and individuals are chiefly involved in the decision-making process in globalization. These groups or individuals are called monopolists in globalization. All social decisions are mainly controlled by them. The study further suggested that the doctrine of monopoly in the concept of globalization has vital importance. It has equal importance and applicability at the national and international levels. It is supported by the idea that only a few key market players can make a better decision to bring any change.
Chinnammai (2006) found that globalization brings structural changes in a traditional society by affecting culture and education. It has been reshaping the economy of a country from an industrial-based economy to an information-based economy. In addition, there is a dark side of globalization which is creating an income gap not only among underdeveloped and developed nations but also in the same country among different groups. Apart from it, he has expounded that globalization is becoming the cause of psychological issues in the host countries as there is a huge difference between the culture of the donor dominant country and the recipient country. Therefore, the role of globalization in the education sector should be kept under effective check by domestic governments.
Bhagwati (2007) regarded globalization as a positive and beneficial force. The study stressed that carefully monitored globalization is the best force for the societal benefit of the world. He has proposed his viewpoint based on two main beliefs: 1) the study proposed that globalization brings prosperity to the host country but this process needs time to penetrate. Once the fruits of globalization have been reaped, then spend some of the sources for the betterment of society. The study restated that globalization is a self-sustaining phenomenon. It is not a choice but a compulsion in the modern world. Rasool (2007) discussed the doctrine of monopoly in process of globalization in the context of Pakistan by saying that IMF and the World Bank are key players; monopolists in the decision-making process. The study projected that not only in Pakistan but also in other developing countries, these two powerful international financial institutions dictate economic and even social affairs.
Ali & Tahir (2009) explained the impacts of globalization on education reforms in Pakistan and further explained those educational reforms which emerged because of globalization. After reviewing policy documents and educational reforms from the 1990s onward, it has been suggested that while formulating national education policy and while initiating education reforms in Pakistan, globalization trends should be taken into consideration.
Razak (2011) analyzed the impacts of globalization on education and culture. The study followed a non-empirical approach by discussing the studies relating to concerning literature. The study defined globalization in various contexts and has concluded that globalization is a double-edged sword. Moreover, globalization is an inevitable phenomenon, therefore, neither the developed countries nor the developing countries can refrain from its effects. The study further suggested that more funds should be allocated to the education sector and educational institutes dealing with tertiary education and above. Culturally, positive content like research-oriented education, habits of learning and exploring new ideas must be followed. Al’Abri (2011) conducted a theoretical study to see how globalization impacted the educational policies of emerging countries; meanwhile, he took Oman as a special case. Further, globalization showed colossal impacts on the education policies of every nation in general and of developing nations in particular. More importantly, multinational organizations are playing a pivotal role in globalizing educational systems. This study suggested that the state must play its role regarding the challenges and opportunities associated with globalization.
Okoli (2012) studied the effects of globalization on education in Africa and found that globalization played a central role in the education of a country. As it has been named as a mixed blessing, therefore, its negative aspects have been more prominent in developing countries like African countries, where it has become the vital cause of social division. As per his study, it is true beyond any iota of doubt that globalization has promoted economic growth and education, but it has also brought inequality, injustice, segregation, and marginalization in poor countries particularly. Therefore, he suggested that there is a dire need to probe globalization; it should be set in such a way that it may serve both the developed and underdeveloped nations.
Ashraf & Kopweh (2012) conducted their study to explore how parity and access in the educational system of Pakistan are affected by the impacts of globalization. For data sources, they used educational policies from 1947 to 2009 in Pakistan. The technique of Critical Policy Sociology (CPS) has been used to investigate parity and access in the education system. It has been uncovered by this study that globalization has played a crucial role in increasing the enrollment rate. The literacy rate in the female has also improved. However, the dropout ratio has also burgeoned in education at all levels. They have further found that on one hand privatization in education is playing a positive role in increasing GDP and improving education standards, and on the other hand, it is causing socio-economic issues and divisions. Despite all this, the adaptation of English as a mode of instruction has benefited only a small section of society. Whereas, the major part of society is adversely affected by it.
Jahanian & Soleymani (2013) presented their theoretical research on the effects of globalization on education. They proposed that globalization is an automatic process once the economies are open to global interaction. They have given the example of a tennis ball which falls from a mountain. If it starts to fall, it will automatically sustain and increase its speed, and no additional force is needed to move it. While concluding their research, they suggest that globalization impart undeniable impacts on education at all levels and particularly at the school level. It is the need of the hour to change the curriculum at schools and enrich it with modern trends.
Arshad & Hariom (2014) conducted a study on the effects of globalization on education. Using primary data of 305 respondents, which include 213 males and 92 females, they took Agra's slump area as a case study. In their study, they have found that globalization has not only increased the awareness about the importance of education for raising the level of living but also has shown positive impacts on education in the form of an increase in their enrolment. The study suggests that the people at the helm of affairs should give more focus to these downtrodden areas.
The education system is diversified in Pakistan. The quality of education depends on the status of the recipient in developing countries like Pakistan. Besides, international institutions like International Monetary Fund and World Bank dictate policies on the subject of education. The real stakeholders are not usually consulted and involved while framing educational reforms. Therefore, they often go against the very culture, ideology, and political framework of the recipient country. It becomes a major cause of their failure in the long run. The fact is that the people at the helm of affairs use the reforms for their political interests and to maintain their status quo. Consequently, the inconsistent educational policy does not coincide with the real stakeholders and hence fails. Saeed et al. (2020) conducted a qualitative analysis by using content analysis to check the influence of globalization on education in Pakistan. The study suggests that several international organizations have influenced the educational reform system in Pakistan while fulfilling their interests rather than the interests of the host country.
It has been observed that few studies describe empirically the relationship between globalization and education. In the context of Pakistan, the condition is not encouraging regarding the concerned studies. Most of the researches are theoretical. However, the following study intends to empirically evaluate the relationship between globalization and education.
Theoretical Framework, Selection of Variables and Econometric Methodology
An analysis of the literature shows that globalization is a considerable force that may affect education worldwide in general and in Pakistan in particular. Globalization is a multifaceted process that is often observed in the political, economic, and social spheres (Sahlberb, 2004). The Hyper-Globalist approach is a modern approach to globalization, advocates its viewpoint as the world has transformed into a ‘global age’. It has reached the point of legalizing the supremacy of ‘global capitalism’ (Tikly, 2001). 'Neo-liberal agenda' is the backbone of the theory of the hyper-globalist approach (Held, 2004). Considering this modern approach, if education is taken into consideration, there is no literature relating to globalization which states that a nation gives up its educational system in response to the influx of globalization. It is noteworthy that governments respond to the trends of globalization at different levels. They often give space for change in their defense and foreign affairs policy, but they never lose their control over the education and training sector (Green, 1999). Keeping in view the discussion, we have a set of independent variables, including globalization, that may affect education in Pakistan. Keeping in view the discussion, the functional form of the model is as under:
EDU = f (GBZIt, GEt, UPGt, PCPCt) (1)
For estimation purposes, equation-1 can be written in the econometric form. The econometric equation is as under:
(2)
Where ‘t’ stands for time series data. ‘EDUt’ education is measured by adult literacy rate.
‘GDZIt’ refers to the KOF globalization index. It is a proxy of globalization.
‘GEt’ represent government expenditures as a percentage of GDP.
‘UPGt’ indicates urban population, annual percentage growth.
‘PCPCt’ refers to private consumption per capita in rupees.
? represents intercept in the model; whereas, ?s are the coefficients that represents the disturbance term in the econometric equation. Data has been collected from the World Development Indicator (WDI), the website of KOF Swiss Economic Institute (2020). Time series data from 1980 to 2019 for Pakistan has been used.
Stationarity of Data
Before going to co-integration, long-run and short-run analysis, stationarity, or existence of unit root in the series have been checked. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test is used to find the stationarity of the series. ADF test gives more appropriate and authentic results while using a small data set. The ADF test at the level and the first difference have been applied to all the variables used in the model. The results of the unit root test have been mentioned in Table-1.
Table 1. The Unit Root Test
| width="36%" colspan="2"> At Level width="34%" colspan="2">At First Difference | > Names of Variables width="18%">ADF stat width="18%">Prob. Value width="15%">ADF stat width="18%">Prob. Value | > EDUt width="18%">-1.1546 width="18%">0.6827 width="15%">-3.6227** width="18%">0.0103 | > GBZIt width="18%">-0.9321 width="18%">0.7663 width="15%">-3.1040** width="18%">0.0357 | > GEt width="18%">-2.5377 width="18%">0.1161 width="15%">-3.9595** width="18%">0.0043 | > UPGt width="18%">-1.1816 width="18%">0.6709 width="15%">-3.5010** width="18%">0.0141 | > PCPCt width="18%">-1.5712 width="18%">0.4866 width="15%">-7.3449* width="18%">0.0000 | ||||||||
| Lag width="18%">LogL width="17%">LR width="15%">AIC width="15%">SC width="15%">HQ | > 0 width="18%">-134.0483 width="17%">NA width="15%">7.9456 width="15%">8.1678 width="15%">8.0223 | > 1 width="18%">62.0979 width="17%">325.0424* width="15%">-1.8342 width="15%">-0.5010* width="15%">-1.3740* | > 2 width="18%">88.9517 width="17%">36.8280 width="15%">-1.9401* width="15%">0.5040 width="15%">-1.0964 | |||||||||||
| No. of Co-integ. Vectors width="24%">Trace Statistics width="21%">Critical Value width="18%">Peobability | > None* width="24%">140.6752 width="21%">69.8189 width="18%">0.0000 | > At most 1* width="24%">48.2996s width="21%">47.8561 width="18%">0.0426 | > At most 2 width="24%">20.5735 width="21%">29.7971 width="18%">0.3848 | > At most 3 width="24%">5.3366 width="21%">15.4947 width="18%">0.7721 | > No. of Co-integ. Vectors width="24%">Eigen Statistics width="21%">Critical Value width="18%">Probability | > None* width="24%">97.3756 width="21%">33.8769 width="18%">0.0000 | > At most 1* width="24%">28.7261 width="21%">27.5843 width="18%">0.0223 | > At most 2 width="24%">15.2369 width="21%">21.1316 width="18%">0.2726 | > At most 3 width="24%">5.2948 width="21%">14.2646 width="18%">0.7043 | |||||
| Name of Variables width="37%">Coefficients width="32%">t-stat | > GBZIt width="37%">0.0125 width="32%">3.0884 | > GEt width="37%">0.0082 width="32%">4.2398 | > UPGt width="37%">0.0606 width="32%">7.3018 | > PCPCt width="37%">0.0104 width="32%">4.9646 |
Short-Run Analysis
In the short run, most of the variables showed an insignificant effect on education; the coefficient of error term’s first lag is significantly negative. The statistical value of the ECT (-1) term is negative, which indicates and is assuring a long-run relationship in the model. As Egert et al. (2009) argued that the basic and standard conditions are the significant and negative value of the first lag of short-run error correction term.
Table 5. Short-run Results (Explained Variable = ?EDUt)
| Variable width="24%">Coefficient width="25%">t-Statistic width="21%">Prob. | > ?EDUt-1 width="24%">0.0449 width="25%">2.6928 width="21%">0.0130 | > ?GBZI t-1 width="24%">-0.0128 width="25%">-1.6758 width="21%">0.1073 | > ?GE t-1 width="24%">-0.0136 width="25%">-0.7013 width="21%">0.4902 | > ?GE t-2 width="24%">0.0133 width="25%">0.6779 width="21%">0.5046 | > ?UPG t-1 width="24%">-0.0402 width="25%">-2.1734 width="21%">0.0403 | > ?UPG t-2 width="24%">-0.0155 width="25%">-0.8366 width="21%">0.4114 | > ?PCPC t-1 width="24%">0.0804 width="25%">1.5423 width="21%">0.1367 | > ?PCPC t-2 width="24%">0.0615 width="25%">1.5679 width="21%">0.1306 | > ECTt-1 width="24%">-0.0973 width="25%">-2.5416 width="21%">0.0182 | > Constant width="24%">0.0674 width="25%">4.6030 width="21%">0.0001 | > R2 = 0.6594>Adj. R2 = 0.5113>F-stat. = 4.4519>Prob. (F-stat.) = 0.0015>D.W = 1.8396 | |||
Diagnostic Tests
Heteroskedasticity test, the goodness of model test (test for model specification), normality test, and test for serial correlation are the main diagnostic tests that are applied to the model in the short run.
Table 6. Results of Diagnostic Tests
| Diagnostic width="40%">Test Name width="13%">F. Stat. width="10%">Prob. | > Heteroskedasticity Test width="40%">Glejser Test width="13%">1.048054 width="10%">0.4529 | > Model Specification Test width="40%">Ramsey RESET Test width="13%">1.485226 width="10%">0.2322 | > Normality Test width="40%">Jarque-Bera Test Statistics width="13%">2.559404 width="10%">0.2781 | > Serial Correlation LM Test width="40%">Breusch –Godfrey Test width="13%">1.116258 width="10%">0.3462 |
