Abstract

This study delves into the influence of psychological factors on investors' decision-making, with a focus on the moderating role of education. The target population comprises 883 domestic individual investors registered in the Pakistan Stock Exchange. Employing a structured questionnaire, opinions were gathered from a sample of 275 financial domestic individual investors. The findings reveal a positive and significant association between risk propensity, risk perception, and investment decisions. Conversely, herding behaviour exhibits a negative and significant impact, indicating that heightened herding behaviour reduces investors' decision to invest. Further analysis underscores the combined effect (moderating effect) of risk propensity financial literacy, revealing a significant yet negative impact on investors' decisions, while risk perception financial literacy demonstrates a positive and significant effect. The concluding table highlights the positively significant presence of loss aversion bias

Key Words:

Investor Decision-making, Psychological Factors, Education Moderation, Financial Literacy, Herding Behavior

JEL Classification

JEL Classification

Introduction

Behavioral finance (BF) has emerged as a critical field, shedding light on the complex interplay of cognitive, psychological, social, and emotional factors that influence decision-making in both individuals and organizations. In contrast to traditional finance, which assumes rational behaviour, BF acknowledges the inherent irrationality of human actions. Researchers like Kahneman and Tversky (1972) and Ramiah, Xu, & Moosa (2015) have questioned the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), contending that biases and errors in information processing render markets incomplete.

At the heart of investment decisions lie risk perception (RPE) and risk propensity (RPR), acting as pivotal factors. RPE serves as a communicative source, preparing investors to embrace risk based on psychological factors. Meanwhile, RPR reflects investors' inclinations toward avoiding or embracing risky actions. Despite existing studies focusing on RPE and RPR individually, there's a noticeable void in research examining their combined influence.

Conventional financial theories, including arbitrage principles and portfolio theories, assume rational decision-making. However, even experts, armed with knowledge, often succumb to cognitive biases. Behavioral Finance, introduced by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) and Shiller (1995), explores the profound impact of psychological factors on financial markets.

While BF studies have been prevalent in advanced economies, a gap exists in understanding their applicability to emerging economies like Pakistan. This study seeks to explore behavioural factors influencing investment decisions in the Pakistani stock market, accounting for the unique cultural, social, and economic dynamics of the region.

Despite advancements in BF research, there's a critical gap in comprehensively examining the joint influence of risk perception, risk propensity, and financial literacy on investor behaviour. Previous studies have predominantly focused on isolated aspects, neglecting the interaction between these factors. The unpredictability of the Pakistani financial market necessitates an in-depth investigation into the contextual impact on investor behaviour.

The objectives of this study are multi-faceted. It aims to examine the effect of risk propensity on investors' decision-making behaviour, investigate the influence of risk perception on their decisions, assess the impact of loss aversion bias, and evaluate financial literacy as a potential moderating factor between investors' decision-making behaviour and psychological factors.

In formulating hypotheses, we consider the associations between risk propensity and decision-making behaviour, risk perception and decision-making behaviour, and the potential moderation by financial literacy. These hypotheses provide a structured framework for the investigation, fostering a deeper understanding of the intricate relationships at play.

The significance of this study lies in its contribution to the limited understanding of variables influencing individual investors' behaviour. By addressing diverse demographics and exploring the roles of risk perception and risk propensity for less experienced investors, the findings have practical implications for market participants. This research offers insights into the rationality and behaviour of investors in the Pakistan Stock Exchange, contributing to the development of existing literature on behavioural finance.

In conclusion, this study aims to fill a crucial research gap by examining the interconnected influences of risk perception, risk propensity, and financial literacy on investors' decision-making behaviour in the context of the Pakistani stock market. By doing so, it contributes to a broader understanding of behavioural finance and its implications for emerging economies like Pakistan.

 

Literature Review

Behavioural finance delves into the financial behaviours of stakeholders engaged in saving, acquisition, and management. It encompasses saving and investment, credit and cash management, emphasizing the efficient utilization of scarce resources. Factors like locus of control and income significantly influence individual financial behaviour. This stands in contrast to traditional financial theories like the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), arbitrage principles, and modern portfolio theory, which assume perfect capital markets and rational decision-making.

Kahneman and Tversky's prospect theory challenges these assumptions, asserting that investors' choices are influenced by self-utility perceptions rather than a rational evaluation of all available information. The theory highlights the impact of potential gains and losses on decision-making, with investors often prioritizing gains over losses. This departure from rational decision-making introduces the concept of behavioural biases, shaping investors' limited and sometimes irrational choices.

Psychological tendencies and financial risk tolerance are explored in studies like Kubilay et al. (2016), revealing the significant influence of personality traits on investors. Financial literacy emerges as a crucial concept, signifying financial awareness and understanding of procedures and rules. Decision-making biases, such as herding behaviour, overconfidence, and availability bias, are identified as influencers in investment choices, impacting market variables and individual investors.

The dual-process theory posits two decision-making systems: an intuitive, unconscious method based on past experiences and a deliberate, logical approach. This theory suggests that experienced investors may lean towards intuition, while educated young investors might rely on reasoning.

Loss Aversion Bias (LAB) is another psychological factor explored, highlighting individuals' tendency to avoid losses rather than pursue gains. LAB plays a crucial role in decision-making, with potential loss looming larger in individuals' minds than potential profits. Investment decisions, defined as buying and selling financial instruments, are influenced by various factors like herding behaviour, overconfidence, and anchoring. The global financial crisis, heuristics usage, and the disposition effect also impact investment policies and decision-making.

Risk Propensity (RPR) and Risk Perception (RPE) are psychological factors influencing investment decisions. RPR reflects an individual's inclination to embrace or avoid risk, while RPE is subjective, and influenced by environmental, cognitive, and personal factors. Financial literacy is introduced as a moderating variable, with the hypothesis that it can enhance or diminish the relationship between psychological factors and investors' decision-making behaviour.

Herding behaviour is introduced as a control variable, reflecting the tendency of investors to imitate others due to a lack of public information and market transparency. In conclusion, the essay emphasizes the multifaceted nature of behavioural finance, incorporating psychological factors, biases, financial literacy, and herding behaviour into the intricate realm of investment decision-making. The interplay of these elements shapes investors' choices, challenging traditional financial theories and paving the way for a more nuanced understanding of financial behaviours.

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